Tag Archives: Models

Coronavirus Live Updates: Grim Models Project High U.S. Toll – The New York Times

Coronavirus Live Updates: Grim Models Project High U.S. Toll – The New York Times

Even as stocks rebounded well off their lowest point, when the S&P 500 suffered its worst one-day drop since 1987, March was the worst month for the S&P 500 since October 2008, when investors feared a collapse of the economy in the wake of the global financial crisis. The S&P 500 is down about 12.5 percent this month.

On Tuesday, stocks fell nearly 2 percent.

Calmer markets do not mean the worst is over. As consumers stay home and factories shut down, millions of workers have lost their jobs. Economic data showing the scale of the damage has only just begun to roll in, and Wall Street analysts continue to downgrade expectations for the economy.

But the worst of the recent swings in asset prices seem to have ended, and financial markets are trying to find a footing.

“We appear to be seeing improved sentiment,” Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone, a financial services and brokerage firm, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “When sentiment does start to improve around the virus and its ultimate economic impact — the market will find it difficult to ignore the size and scope of the fiscal and monetary stimulus that has been undertaken.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reconsidering its guidance that people not wear masks as new data shows that many individuals who show no symptoms are carrying the virus and infecting others.

The C.D.C. and the World Health Organization have repeatedly said that the general public does not need to wear masks. And as health care workers around the world face shortages of N95 masks and protective gear, public health officials have warned people not to hoard masks.

But Dr. Robert Redfield, the C.D.C. director, told NPR on Monday that the agency was re-evaluating its guidelines based on data showing that as many as 25 percent of infected people remain asymptomatic. “That’s important, because now you have individuals that may not have any symptoms that can contribute to transmission, and we have learned that in fact they do contribute to transmission,” he said.

He suggested that masks might cut down on spread from those people, and said that is “being aggressively reviewed as we speak.”

He also said that people who are just becoming ill may already be infectious up to 48 hours before they show symptoms. “This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues to spread across the country, because we have asymptomatic transmitters and we have individuals who are transmitting 48 hours before they become symptomatic,” he added.

Places like Hong Kong and Taiwan that jumped into action early with universal mask wearing and social distancing have gotten their coronavirus cases under much greater control.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said on Sunday that the C.D.C. should put out designs for cloth masks for the general public. “The value of the mask isn’t necessarily to protect you from getting sick, although it may offer some protection,” he told CBS News, adding, “When someone who’s infected is wearing a mask, they’re much less likely to transmit infection.”

In the radio interview, Dr. Redfield also said that social distancing measures — including staying six feet or more away from others in public spaces, and staying home — were important to keep in place for now.

Across Asia, countries and cities that seemed to have brought the epidemic under control are suddenly tightening their borders and imposing stricter containment measures, fearful about a wave of new infections imported from elsewhere.

The moves portend a worrisome sign for the United States, Europe and the rest of the world still battling a surging outbreak: Any country’s success with containment could be tenuous, and the world could remain on a kind of indefinite lockdown.

Even when the number of new cases starts to fall, travel barriers and bans in many places may persist until a vaccine or treatment is found. The risk otherwise is that the infection could be reintroduced inside their borders, especially given the prevalence of asymptomatic people who might unknowingly carry the virus with them.

Following a recent uptick in cases tied to international travelers, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan barred foreigners from entering altogether in recent days. Japan has barred visitors from most of Europe, and is considering denying entry to travelers from countries including the United States. South Korea imposed stricter controls, requiring incoming foreigners to quarantine in government facilities for 14 days upon arrival.

In China, international flights have been cut back so severely that Chinese students abroad wonder when they will be able to get home. In Singapore, recently returned citizens must share their phones’ location data with the authorities each day to prove they are sticking to government-ordered quarantines. In Taiwan, a man who had traveled to Southeast Asia was fined $33,000 for sneaking out to a club when he was supposed to be on lockdown at home.

“Even countries that have been relatively successful in managing the pandemic are only as safe as the weakest links in the system,” said Kristi Govella, an assistant professor of Asian studies at the University of Hawaii, Manoa, who added that in the absence of cooperation among countries, “closing borders is one of the ways that individual governments can control the situation.”

Video

bars
0:00/1:50
1:50

transcript

‘He’s My Best Friend,’ Cuomo Says of Brother With Coronavirus

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York delivered an update on the coronavirus cases in the state, where he mentioned his brother’s positive test result.

My brother Chris is positive for coronavirus — found out this morning. The, now he is going to be fine. He’s young, in good shape. Strong, not as strong as he thinks, but he will be fine. But there’s a lesson in this. He’s an essential worker, member of the press. So he’s been out there — you go out there, the chance that you’ll get infected is very high. I spoke to him this morning and he’s going to be quarantined in his basement at home. You don’t really know Chris. You know, you see Chris. He has a show at night, 9 o’clock on CNN. But you just see one dimension, right? You see a person in his job, and in his job he’s combative and he’s argumentative and he’s pushing people. But that’s his job. That’s really not who he is. He’s a really sweet, beautiful guy and he’s my best friend. My father was always working so it was always just me and Chris. And he’s a lawyer also, Chris. If my brother still had my mother at his house, again out of love and comfort, and my mother wanted to be at the house anyway, by the way — she didn’t want to be sitting at home in an apartment, so she would have been doing what she wanted to do. He would have been doing what he wanted to do, it would have seemed great and harmless, but now we’d have a much different situation.

Video player loading
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York delivered an update on the coronavirus cases in the state, where he mentioned his brother’s positive test result.CreditCredit…Gabby Jones for The New York Times

In New York State — the center of the nation’s outbreak, with 1,550 deaths so far and the peak not expected for another one to three weeks — Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Tuesday that the country’s patchwork approach to the pandemic had made it harder to get desperately needed ventilators.

Mr. Cuomo said that New York had ordered 17,000 ventilators from China, only to find itself competing with other the other 49 states, other nations, and even the Federal Emergency Management Agency — leaving New York with a firm expectation of getting only 2,500 of its ordered ventilators over the next two weeks.

“We’re all trying to buy the same commodity, literally the same exact item,” Mr. Cuomo said, complaining that the competition was pitting the agencies against one another and driving up prices.

“What sense does this make?” he said “The federal government, FEMA, should have been the purchasing agent, buy everything, and then allocate it by need to the states. Why would you create a situation where the 50 states are competing with each other and then the federal government, and FEMA, comes in and competes with the rest of it?”

Mr. Cuomo, whose fact-filled, sometimes emotional coronavirus briefings have drawn a national audience in recent days, shared that the pandemic had now hit close as he commented Tuesday on the news that his younger brother, Chris Cuomo, the CNN anchor, had tested positive.

Governor Cuomo, who called Chris his “best friend,” said that his younger brother, who is 49, would be fine, saying that he was “young, in good shape, strong” — before teasing that he is “not as strong as he thinks.”

And he used his family anecdote to remind people that social distancing was important — saying how relieved he was that their 88-year-old mother, Matilda Cuomo, had stayed away from Chris and his family in recent days since she could have easily been infected.

Here’s what else Mr. Cuomo said:

  • The number of confirmed cases in New York increased by 9,298, bringing the statewide total to 75,795 statewide as of Tuesday. In New York City, 43,139 people have tested positive.

  • The number of patients hospitalized surpassed 10,900, up 15 percent from yesterday. Of those, 2,710 are currently in intensive care rooms with ventilators.

  • More than 18,000 people were tested overnight, pushing the total number of people tested to about 205,000, more than 1 percent of the state’s population.

    Also on Tuesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio said the city’s Human Rights Commission would investigate Amazon’s firing of a worker at a Staten Island warehouse who had helped lead a walkout over safety conditions.

    If the worker, Christian Smalls, were fired for raising health and safety concerns, “That would be a violation of our city human rights law,” Mr. de Blasio said. “We would act on it immediately.” He said the New York City sheriff’s office visited the warehouse on Staten Island to make sure social-distancing rules were being followed and would continue to do so throughout the week.

The New York City subway has become a symbol of the city’s inequality, amplifying the divide between those with the means to safely shelter at home during the pandemic and those who must continue braving public transit to preserve meager livelihoods.

“I don’t want to get sick, I don’t want my family to get sick, but I still need to get to my job,” Yolanda Encanción, a home health aide, said recently as she waited for her train in the Bronx.

Since the crisis erupted, the subways have emptied: Ridership has plummeted to fewer than 1 million riders a day from more than five million before. But a New York Times analysis of M.T.A. data shows that the declines vary significantly — largely along socioeconomic lines.

The steepest ridership declines have been in Manhattan, where the median household income is the highest in the city. Some stations in Bronx neighborhoods with high poverty rates, though, have largely retained their ridership.

Many residents there say they have no choice but to pile onto trains with strangers, potentially exposing themselves to the virus. Even worse, a reduction in service in response to plunging ridership has led, at times, to crowded conditions, making it impossible to maintain the social distancing that public health experts recommend.

At the 170th Street station in the University Heights neighborhood of the Bronx, riders still come in waves every morning.

Men tend to arrive first, before dawn, wearing paint-splattered jeans and carrying battered hard hats as they head to construction sites. Later, many women trickle onto the platform, mostly nurses and home health aides deemed essential workers. Others are cooks and nannies, hoping to keep their jobs as long as possible in an unraveling economy.

The United States’ coronavirus death toll has moved past China’s official count, a bleak milestone hours before the Trump administration planned to release the models that fueled fears that as many as 200,000 Americans could die because of the pandemic.

Although the count from mainland China — 3,305 deaths — has been a subject of intense skepticism, and although Italy and Spain have reported more than 20,000 fatalities between them, the swelling toll in the United States is a grim indication of the outbreak’s scale.

The U.S., despite widespread concerns about the availability of testing for the virus, already had the highest known number of infections in the world, and the American toll was at least 3,430 deaths, as of late Tuesday morning.

But there are mounting concerns that some countries, including China, North Korea and Indonesia, are not being forthcoming about the scope of their outbreaks.

China on Tuesday announced more than 1,500 coronavirus cases that had not previously been made public, giving in to pressure for greater transparency nearly two weeks after officials there first announced zero new local infections.

Questions about the accuracy of China’s numbers have circulated since the start of the outbreak there, even as the country has touted its apparent success in bringing it under control. The 1,541 newly announced cases were people who had tested positive but were asymptomatic, according to an official at China’s National Health Commission.

China had not previously included asymptomatic patients in its public tallies of confirmed cases, even though the World Health Organization recommends doing so, and many within China and abroad had expressed fear about the true scale of the epidemic.

It was not immediately clear whether the 1,541 figure represented the total number of asymptomatic infections detected in China, or merely a fraction. The South China Morning Post, a Hong Kong-based newspaper, recently reported that asymptomatic cases could number as many as 43,000, or one-third of China’s total case count, citing classified government data.

In the case of North Korea, many observers doubt its claims to not have a single coronavirus case, though some attribute it to a lack of testing equipment. Others accuse the government of hiding an outbreak​ to preserve order.

In Indonesia, the government has for weeks reported zero cases. Yet in a sign that the virus is spreading there, Jakarta’s governor says deaths in the capital may be around 283, nearly four times the official count.

In a moment of need, ordinary Afghans have stepped up to generously share the little that they have, easing the pain of an impending health crisis that is turning into another test of survival for a country where life has been a daily fight for decades.

Across Afghanistan, many landlords have waived rent, in some cases indefinitely until the virus threat recedes. Tailors have handed out thousands of homemade face masks. Youth groups and athletes have delivered food to hospitals and families in destitution. Wedding halls and private schools have volunteered to be turned into hospitals.

The owner of a marketplace of 40 shops forgave rent not just for the month, but for as long as the epidemic continues. The governor of one province set up an emergency Covid-19 fund and in just one day received contributions of more than $100,000.

Mohamed Kareem Tawain, an 80-year-old dentist in Herat, the center of the outbreak in Afghanistan, said that he had experienced multiple wars and droughts in his lifetime, and that Afghanistan was better prepared to deal with the virus than those past scourges.

“I am not too terrified,” he said. “Although it is difficult times, if we join hands, God willing, the corona problem will pass.”

A doctor leading Russia’s fight against the virus — and who shook hands with President Vladimir V. Putin at a meeting last week — has tested positive.

Denis Protsenko, the head doctor at Hospital No. 40, Moscow’s main and most modern infectious diseases treatment facility, said on Facebook on Tuesday that he had gone into self-isolation in his office at the hospital, which Mr. Putin visited last Tuesday. He said he was feeling “quite well” and would continue working remotely.

Dr. Protsenko had greeted the president with a handshake, and neither man wore a face mask. Mr. Putin donned a protective suit and gas mask to visits wards containing virus patients, but also had extensive unprotected contact with the doctors and nurses.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding to news of Dr. Protsenko’s infection, said that Mr. Putin had been tested regularly for coronavirus and that “everything is OK,” the Interfax news agency reported.

The news of Dr. Protsenko’s infection was announced just a day after Moscow went into lockdown, with residents barred from leaving their homes except to buy food and medicine and walk their dogs within a hundred yards of their residence.

Dr. Protsenko had predicted that the coronavirus could reach its peak this week in Russia, which has reported fewer cases than western Europe and the United States, despite figures showing an accelerating rate of infection.

Russia on Tuesday reported 500 new confirmed cases, bringing its total to 2,337, a nearly fivefold increase over a week ago, with 17 deaths.

The captain of an American aircraft carrier deployed to the Pacific Ocean has pleaded with the Pentagon for more help as a coronavirus outbreak aboard his ship continues to spread, officials said Tuesday. Military officials say dozens of sailors have been infected.

In a four-page letter, first reported by The San Francisco Chronicle Tuesday, Capt. Brett E. Crozier of the U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt laid out the dire situation unfolding aboard the warship, currently docked in Guam with more than 4,000 crew members, and what he said were the Navy’s failures to provide him with the proper resources to combat the virus by moving sailors off the vessel.

The crisis aboard the Roosevelt played out like a slow-moving disaster and highlights the dangers to the Pentagon if the coronavirus manages to infiltrate some of its most important assets, such as bomber fleets, elite Special Operations units and the talisman of American military power, aircraft carriers.

The authorities in Kenya are investigating a string of deaths and injuries related to the enforcement of a nationwide dusk-to-dawn curfew, one of several wide-ranging measures aimed at containing the spread of the virus in the country.

The office of the director of public prosecutions announced on Tuesday that it had ordered an investigation into the killing of Yasin Moyo, a 13-year-old boy who was hit by a stray bullet and died of his injuries on Monday night as officers enforced the curfew in a neighborhood on the outskirts of Nairobi, the capital.

The inspector general of Kenya’s police force said he had asked investigators to undertake “a forensic analysis of all firearms” held by officers who were on duty in the area at time of the shooting.

The case is the latest to rock the East African nation since an overnight curfew was introduced on Friday. Hours before it began, images and videos shared on social media showed police officers firing tear gas and beating and detaining commuters at a ferry terminal in the coastal city of Mombasa. On Tuesday, the government-mandated Independent Police Oversight Authority said it would investigate the incident, along with other reports of excessive use of force by police.

The 7 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew is among a raft of new policies aimed at halting the virus. Officials have also closed schools and universities, banned religious gatherings and suspended international flights. Kenya had 59 confirmed cases of the virus on Tuesday, and at least one death.

Police officials in Britain and elsewhere are also enforcing restrictions on movement and have sometimes been accused of overreach. There is “a strong temptation for the police to lose sight of their real functions and turn themselves from citizens in uniform into glorified school prefects,” Jonathan Sumption, a former Supreme Court judge, told the BBC on Monday.

The police in Britain have been given an extended set of powers, including the authority to instruct people to leave a place or return home, and issue fines to anyone who is out in public for anything other than necessary shopping, exercising once a day, or traveling to and from essential work. Officers have issued summons for people for taking drives “out of boredom” and reprimanded others for sitting in the park.

In France, more than a quarter of a million people have been fined since restrictions on movement were announced, according to Interior Ministry figures. And in Italy, the country hardest hit by the outbreak in Europe, anyone violating quarantine rules can be fined up to 3,000 euros, about $3,300.

A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that more than a dozen people must be released from federal immigration detention facilities in Pennsylvania by the end of the day, because the detainees’ age or pre-existing health conditions put them at high risk of contracting the virus in the facilities.

Two of the plaintiffs were already showing symptoms, their lawyers said, but had not been tested for it. According to their legal complaint, the plaintiffs have been sleeping two or three to a small cell, or side-by-side in bigger rooms of more than 50, with bunk beds so close that they could bump into each other during the night.

“They ate shoulder to shoulder and had 60 people sharing four showers and four sinks with little sanitization in between uses,” said Vic Walczak, the legal director of the Pennsylvania chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union, which represented the plaintiffs. “If you have one infected person in that room, those kind of conditions are only going to guarantee that everybody else is going to be infected.”

The complainants in the case — who are from countries including Nigeria, Indonesia, Guatemala and India — were at especially high risk because of high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart stents and other chronic conditions.

In ordering their release, Judge John E. Jones III of the Federal District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania wrote, “Our world has been altered with lightning speed, and the results are both unprecedented and ghastly.” He continued, “The choices we now make must reflect this new reality.”

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont share a number of priorities regarding the outbreak.

Both have been sharply critical of Mr. Trump’s stewardship of the crisis. They have called on him to move to accelerate the production of critical medical gear for health care workers. They have urged him to listen to expert advice from scientists. And they have also expressed concerns about the economic impact of the outbreak, with both seeking housing-related protections for the public.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders have both urged a moratorium on evictions and support temporary rent freezes.

There are also key differences between how they have navigated the crisis.

For Mr. Sanders, the outbreak has offered another reason to push for his signature single-payer health care proposal, “Medicare for all,” which Mr. Biden opposes. Mr. Sanders argues that the moment has revealed extraordinary weaknesses in the American public health system and underscored the need for universal health care.

Mr. Biden, who supports building on the Affordable Care Act with the addition of a public option, has sought to use the crisis to illustrate how he would govern as president, rolling out a public health advisory committee and spending hours receiving briefings focused on the virus and on the economy.

Yet despite ramping up his news media appearances and virtual events, Mr. Biden — the front-runner for the Democratic nomination — has sometimes found himself struggling to break through.

Experts keep saying to plan for this to last for a long time. And with many communities a week or more into being homebound, the novelty is wearing off. Here are some tips to help fight burnout, manage antsy teenagers, and even freshen up a home to make it better suit current needs.

Reporting and research were contributed by Michael Cooper, Alan Blinder, Karen Zraick, Michael D. Shear, James Glanz, David D. Kirkpatrick, Corina Knoll, Caitlin Dickerson, Elisabetta Povoledo, Mujib Mashal, Asadullah Timory, Najim Rahim, Aurelien Breeden, Constant Méheut, Selam Gebrekidan, Marc Santora, Megan Specia, Joanna Berendt, Benjamin Novak, Raphael Minder, Elian Peltier, Steven Erlanger, Iliana Magra, Donald G. McNeil Jr., Anna Schaverien, Maria Abi-Habib, Sameer Yasir, Raymond Zhong, Knvul Sheikh, Melissa Eddy, Choe Sang-Hun, Abdi Latif Dahir, Michael M. Grynbaum, Andy Newman, Katie Glueck, Helene Cooper, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Andrew Higgins, Adeel Hassan and Richard C. Paddock.


Source : Link

Man models quarantine-inspired styles in hilarious home fashion show

Man models quarantine-inspired styles in hilarious home fashion show This fly fella isn’t letting the coronavirus lockdown stifle his style. Elias Aragaw was going stir-crazy after Texas officials announced strict shelter-in-place guidelines for Dallas County residents. Bored with lazing about … read more

Victoria’s Secret Debuts Dramatic New Campaign Featuring Sexy Models Of All Shapes & Ages

Victoria’s Secret Debuts Dramatic New Campaign Featuring Sexy Models Of All Shapes & Ages Victoria’s Secret celebrates body inclusivity with its Spring 2020 ‘Body by Victoria’ line. The brand promoted the diverse collection with a campaign featuring gorgeous models who … read more

Alexander McQueen praised for including plus-size models in runway show: ‘It takes all shapes’

Alexander McQueen praised for including plus-size models in runway show: ‘It takes all shapes’ With Paris Fashion Week in full swing, Alexander McQueen’s show on Monday, titled “Love Letter to Women,” gave audience members the chance to enjoy the design … read more

The simplest of climate models run decades ago accurately projected global warming – Washington Post

The simplest of climate models run decades ago accurately projected global warming – Washington Post The simplest of climate models run decades ago accurately projected global warming  Washington Post Climate Models Have Been Right For Decades  Gizmodo Climate simulations are mostly accurate, … read more

Is Pete Davidson Dating Cindy Crawford’s Daughter Kaia Gerber? | Daily Pop | E! News

The “SNL” star was spotted leaving the model’s NYC apartment–so are they a couple or just friends? Watch! #PeteDavidson #ENews #DailyPop #KaiaJordanGerber Watch Live from E! here: http://bit.ly/2vGuD5g Subscribe: http://bit.ly/enewssub About Daily Pop: Come for the Hollywood headlines, stay for … read more

Is Pete Davidson Dating Cindy Crawford’s Daughter Kaia Gerber? | Daily Pop | E! News

The “SNL” star was spotted leaving the model’s NYC apartment–so are they a couple or just friends? Watch! #PeteDavidson #ENews #DailyPop #KaiaJordanGerber Watch Live from E! here: http://bit.ly/2vGuD5g Subscribe: http://bit.ly/enewssub About Daily Pop: Come for the Hollywood headlines, stay for … read more