It has been a rough season on the daily fantasy sports front for the Madman. But we have one last attempt to salvage some profit. One last Hail Mary to save the season.
The options to do so are quite limited. We don’t have multiple slates to choose from, a collection of games, or even a short slate. We have merely one-game options for the Super Bowl — MVP contests at FanDuel and the Captain’s Showdown at DraftKings.
These feature five and six Flex positions, respectively. One spot represents the MVP or Captain, paying 1.5 times the cost and receiving 1.5 times the fantasy points. To win impactful money, you need to have either the top scorer from the game or a long shot who happens to score well above value.
Obviously, the top scorer is much more likely to be a top player, and top players are much more likely to be owned. That said, to be successful playing these contests, you really need multiple entries — since the wild cards are so difficult to forecast. Of the multiple contests you enter, most should have a bona fide star in the multiplier position. But …
For those rosters in which you decide to stray outside the fantasy favorites, or if you fill out other rosters in a way that will allow you to use multiple stars, you’re going to need to have cheap options.
Our favorite cheap target in the 49ers-Chiefs matchup is the Chiefs’ defense/special teams. These DST units aren’t available on FanDuel, so we’re going to take the bulk of our action to DraftKings.
We’re going with a DST because few others will. Plus, is a defensive or special teams touchdown any more or less likely than a TD from, say, Emmanuel Sanders or Kendrick Bourne or Mecole Hardman? Plus, you also score with turnovers and sacks.
The 49ers have the marquee defense, which is added motivation to play the less popular unit. Beyond that, the Chiefs have actually been the better defense since about midseason. Since Week 11, the Chiefs have surrendered 15.5 points per game to opponents, including the playoffs. The 49ers, since Week 9, have allowed 23.9.
But wait, there’s more. The 49ers’ biggest defensive lapses have come against mobile quarterbacks (Seattle’s Russell Wilson twice, Arizona’s Kyler Murray twice) or premier passers (New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan). The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is both mobile and the premierest of premier passers.
These defenses have been heading in opposite directions. Yes, the 49ers’ is still a better unit, but neither the Chiefs’ improvement nor San Francisco’s decline is getting proper attention.
Cue up some Chiefs on Sunday, and let’s hope this season has a Super ending.