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The biggest mistake less-experienced bettors make

The biggest mistake less-experienced bettors make

One common pitfall for bettors to avoid is confirmation bias — seeking out information that fits your already held opinion. In other words, bettors are looking for information that tells them what they want to hear. Once they find it, they end the search for more data. This is dangerous because it causes bettors to talk themselves into or out of a bet based on cherry-picked information that may not tell the whole story.

Let’s say the Boston Bruins are playing the Chicago Blackhawks in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. A hockey bettor is dying to bet the game so he scours the internet for Game 7 betting trends. Does the home team have an advantage? Is the away team undervalued? Does the team off of a win carry momentum into Game 7? What are the records of both coaches in Game 7s?

An experienced bettor finds a vast list of trends that favor both teams equally with no edge either way, so he smartly decides to lay off the game and not place a bet. However, if that bettor was a Bruins fan, he might choose to focus heavily on the trends that favor Boston while completely ignoring the trends favoring the Blackhawks.

This type of thought process is natural, but it should be avoided at all costs because it leads to poor decision making. Always enter a bet with an open and clear mind. Let the data decide which team is the smart bet, not your preexisting beliefs and emotions. And remember: There is nothing wrong with laying off a bet if you can’t identify an edge. There will always be more games to bet on.

In an article for the website 538 titled “The Real Story of 2016,” leading statistician Nate Silver blames confirmation bias as the main reason the media failed to predict Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

“Journalists just didn’t believe that someone like Trump could become president … so they cherry-picked their way through data to support their belief, ignoring evidence, such as Hillary Clinton’s poor standing in the Midwest, that didn’t fit the narrative.”

Source : VSiN Link

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