Scoring continues to run rampant in MLB, and oddsmakers have adjusted with higher and higher game totals, first five-inning totals and 1st Inning Yes/No odds (whether or not a run will be scored in the opening inning).
The inflated juice on the “Yes” proposition has made those mostly unplayable, but there is still value to be found occasionally on the 1st Inning No, where the inflated prices give us a payoff in excess of the true odds.
The play that stands out Wednesday is the Rockies-Diamondbacks 1st Inning No at 3:40 p.m.
The Rockies are tied for MLB’s second-best 1st Inning No rate at 52 percent, despite playing half of their games at Coors Field, but this game is at Arizona. The Diamondbacks are a slight 1st Inning Yes team, at 51.6 percent, but those rates basically cancel each other out and I put the true odds on the 1st Inning No at even money, yet I’m pretty confident we’ll be getting plus-money on Wednesday.
Monday’s series opener had the 1st Inning No priced at +115 at William Hill, sportsbooks and it cashed with a scoreless opening inning. Tuesday’s price was +120. With Colorado starting Jon Gray (11-8, 3.84 ERA , 1.35 WHIP ) vs. Arizona’s Mike Leake (9-9, 4.64 ERA , 1.33 WHIP), I’m confident both can work through a scoreless opening frame.
The play: Rockies-Diamondbacks 1st Inning No (at +110 or better).