On ‘Shoestring Budget,’ Terrorist Group Al Shabab Poses Deadly Threat in Somalia

On ‘Shoestring Budget,’ Terrorist Group Al Shabab Poses Deadly Threat in Somalia

NAIROBI, Kenya — The terror group Al Shabab, suspected in the weekend attack that killed 79 people in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, has proved resilient in recent years even as it lost territory, suffered high-level defections and faced increasing airstrikes by the United States.

Almost a decade since African peacekeeping forces kicked the Al Qaeda-linked group out of Mogadishu, it has become versatile in its guerrilla tactics and adept at manufacturing bombs. Over the past few years, the Shabab killed hundreds of people in attacks at home and on neighboring Kenya, assaulted an American military base outside Mogadishu and overran military bases of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

To finance itself, the militants have set up an extensive racketeering system that levies fees on sales of agricultural produce in southern and central Somalia — areas that are the stronghold of the group. They also tax imports into the Mogadishu port, according to the United Nations.

The Shabab have also been able to infiltrate federal institutions — Somalia’s internal security ministry said that Shabab recruited a government employee to kill Mogadishu’s mayor, Abdirahman Omar Osman, in July. The group’s growing assertiveness was in evidence when it declared war last year on pro-Islamic State groups in Somalia in a fight over territory.

“Al Shabab is still strong and stable,” said Stig Jarle Hansen, the author of “Horn, Sahel and Rift: Fault-lines of the African Jihad.” The ongoing threat it poses, he said, goes to show that the “government still has a lot of work to do when it comes to providing safety and security for its ordinary citizens.”

The government said at least 79 people were killed and 149 injured when a truck bomb detonated at a busy intersection on Saturday — the deadliest attack in the country in more two years. Among the victims were parents going to work, students heading to university, foreign engineers building roads, and shop owners.

While no group has taken responsibility yet, suspicion immediately fell on the Shabab, which remains a serious threat to peace and stability in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa region.

The magnitude of the attack was the latest reminder of the deteriorating security situation in Somalia — one of the world’s most fragile states — even as the nation takes piecemeal efforts toward recovery from a decades-long civil war. The weak government is afflicted by internal dysfunction and corruption and oversees an ineffective security force.

Just over two years ago, a double truck bombing killed nearly 600 people at a busy crossroads in Mogadishu. While the Shabab didn’t take responsibility, it was similar to others carried out by the group that involved packing a vehicle with explosives to breach the perimeter of a target followed by a direct assault by gunmen.

Efforts to rebuild a functional security apparatus to face off against the Shabab have proved difficult.

The government has a number of external backers, including the African Union, the United Nations and the United States, which are helping it build a functional police force. In 2017, Turkey set up its largest overseas military base in Somalia in a bid to train and equip more than 10,000 Somali soldiers.

But while these entities continue to support the Somali Army in the liberation of key towns from the militants, the Shabab sometimes retake those towns immediately afterward, because of the federal government’s inability to securely govern them.

“The government has failed to become credible and legitimate in the eyes of the public,” said Rashid Abdi, a Horn of Africa analyst. The country’s security services “are in complete disarray,” he added, undermining efforts to successfully hold off attacks.

Somalia has also become a proxy battleground for Gulf powers looking to expand their economic and political influence in the Horn of Africa, with both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates accused of delivering military training and weapons to various regional security forces.

But where the Somali government continues to seek external support, the Shabab has learned to be “self-reliant” and “operate on a shoestring budget,” Mr. Abdi said.

“There must be foreign help, but it is very minimal and very negligible,” he said. And where they enlist support, it must be with making and securely posting some of its sophisticated propaganda online.

In November, a group of United Nations experts said the Shabab’s use of improvised explosive devices to carry out attacks reached its “greatest extent in Somali history” last year thanks to growing bomb-making operations.

But Mr. Abdi said that nothing has boosted Al Shabab’s recent rise more than the stagnation of the government in Mogadishu.

While the country has made tremendous political, social and economic progress since the federal government was established in 2012, it still faces poverty, high unemployment, and periodic natural disasters. Over the past year, a standoff between the central government and federal states over electoral processes has added to the threats to Somalia’s stability.

Even in areas controlled by the government, the authorities struggle to provide basic services and overcome corruption and mismanagement of state institutions.

The Shabab, on the other hand, helps to mediate day-to-day problems — especially land disputes — even in areas it doesn’t control, Mr. Abdi said.

“Al Shabab feeds on these weaknesses and grows in strength,” he said.

Civilians are bearing the brunt of the growing bloodshed that has gripped major Somali towns and cities in recent years. Tired of the vicious cycle of violence and slow government response, citizens have started taking matters into their own hands during emergencies.

Following Saturday’s attack, a group of 19 young men and women crowded into a room in Mogadishu and came up with a grass-roots organization to track and identify dead or missing people, share the names and locations of those injured, appeal for global attention and seek financial support.

During times of crises, the government’s response “is at best tepid and at worst inhumane,” said the group’s coordinator, Abdihakim Ainte.

Within hours of their formation on Saturday evening, they raised $20,000 from people in three countries, Mr. Ainte said. On Sunday, as the group’s membership ballooned, they sent counselors to hospitals to support families and victims.

“The idea is driven by self-reliance,” Mr. Ainte said. “This is a Somali tragedy and it should have a Somali response.”

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