Hurricane Dorian path map: Latest euro model, NOAA charts and spaghetti models – Express.co.uk
Hurricane Dorian has already battered the US Virgin Islands and is now churning through the Atlantic Ocean towards the US state of Florida. The horrifying weather system is whipping out maximum sustained winds of 105mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale. Dorian is forecast to further strengthen and develop into a major Category 3 hurricane later on Friday. A hurricane watch has been issued for northwestern Bahamas in NOAA’s latest advisory.
Hurricane Dorian is expected to be on Florida’s doorstop on Monday morning, and heading is very gradually turning toward the left, with the latest estimate northwestward.
The high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming established over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
NOAA said: “The high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming established over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
“With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday.
“After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula.
“There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5.”
Hurricane Dorian path map: Dorian is tracking towards Florida
GFS models kept Dorian off the Floridian coast, perhaps making landfall further north in Jacksonville, in its forecast on Thursday.
The model even suggests that Dorian could ride up the coastline, not making landfall in Florida at all.
Accuweather reports: “At this point, there is the likelihood of stormy conditions with heavy rain and gusty winds that push northwestward across part of the Florida Peninsula beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday night.
The weather service added: “Flooding downpours and power outages are possible.”
Hurricane Dorian path map: The GFS and Euro model show two different paths
Hurricane Dorian path map: The Euro model is tracking Dorian different than the GFS
Another tracker, the Euro model, sees the hurricane making landfall in southeastern Florida, perhaps close to Fort Lauderdale.
Following this, Dorian will head west, affecting areas from the coast of Sarasota.
“Should Dorian remain over land for the duration after reaching Florida, the system will slowly weaken and rain itself out over the southeastern corner of the US during Labor Day and beyond”, AccuWeather said.
The key message from NHC is the risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend.
Hurricane Dorian path map: NHC has said Dorian’s path is uncertain
NOAA warned Dorian will most likely intensify into a major Category 4 hurricane during the next few days.
The latest forecast said: “The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall.
“There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight’s G-IV mission, which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day.
“As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air entrainment.
“All these changes should promote intensification while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with the corrected-consensus guidance.
“Unfortunately, I don’t see any large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.”
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