China’s Economy Seen Growing Slowest Since 1990 on Virus Hit

China’s Economy Seen Growing Slowest Since 1990 on Virus Hit

(Bloomberg) — The outbreak of the coronavirus and China’s efforts to stop the spread mean the economy will grow slower this quarter than first thought, with the median forecast now for growth to be the slowest in 30 years.

China’s gross domestic product will grow 4% in the first quarter, according to the median of 18 forecasts since Jan. 31. That’s down from 5.9% in the last survey on Jan. 22 and the lowest level since 1990. Full-year economic growth is forecast to be about 5.5%, also down from 5.9% last month.

Click to read China’s depleted coffers that challenge economic re-building after virus

Nomura Holdings Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:), UBS Group AG and Macquarie Group Ltd. are among those cutting their growth forecast for both the first quarter and the full year, while others expect material shocks to GDP.

Economists forecasts about the economy

(Update to add new Nomura forecast in table, update median estimate for first quarter and full year in 2nd paragraph.)

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Lin Zhu in Beijing at;Yinan Zhao in Beijing at;Cynthia Li in Hong Kong at

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at, James Mayger, Sharon Chen

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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