Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his second season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.
Denver Broncos (+9¹/₂) over HOUSTON TEXANS: This will surprise those who know that the Texans are my biggest Super Bowl future bet and that I was on them against the Patriots on “Sunday Night Football,” but I’m fading them here as this line has been over-adjusted. Even though the Texans have some impressive wins (including also beating the Chiefs), they don’t always win by big margins at home, such as in their non-covering wins over the Raiders and Colts. In addition, the Broncos have been surprisingly competitive as they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games with upsets of the Browns and Chargers (and they should have beaten the Vikings). So I expect them to keep this within a touchdown, too.
Detroit Lions (+13) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This is another game where the line is too high. The Vikings already have failed to cover twice as double-digit home faves — Week 8 against the Redskins and Week 11 against the Broncos — and they beat the Lions by only 12 in Week 7. Granted, that was Oct. 20 against Matthew Stafford, but third-stringer David Blough certainly looked serviceable in his debut on Thanksgiving. With a full week of practice with the first-teamers, I expect Blough and the Lions to keep this close, too.
Last week: 1-1. Falcons (L). 49ers (W).