Broncos vs. Texans prediction, line: Don’t take Houston this time

Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his second season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.

Denver Broncos (+9¹/₂) over HOUSTON TEXANS: This will surprise those who know that the Texans are my biggest Super Bowl future bet and that I was on them against the Patriots on “Sunday Night Football,” but I’m fading them here as this line has been over-adjusted. Even though the Texans have some impressive wins (including also beating the Chiefs), they don’t always win by big margins at home, such as in their non-covering wins over the Raiders and Colts. In addition, the Broncos have been surprisingly competitive as they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games with upsets of the Browns and Chargers (and they should have beaten the Vikings). So I expect them to keep this within a touchdown, too.

Detroit Lions (+13) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: This is another game where the line is too high. The Vikings already have failed to cover twice as double-digit home faves — Week 8 against the Redskins and Week 11 against the Broncos — and they beat the Lions by only 12 in Week 7. Granted, that was Oct. 20 against Matthew Stafford, but third-stringer David Blough certainly looked serviceable in his debut on Thanksgiving. With a full week of practice with the first-teamers, I expect Blough and the Lions to keep this close, too.

Last week: 1-1. Falcons (L). 49ers (W).
Season: 12-14.

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